Until two weeks ago, Leonardo Bruti Liberati’s weekdays consisted of racing to school in Milan, and after class, to his piano lessons, Boy Scouts sessions, rock climbing and swimming. In late March, he was meant to travel to the United Nations in New York, with teenagers from across the world, to participate in the Model U.N. session for youth.
Then in late February his life was drastically upturned, along with millions of others, when Italy’s government put the north of the country on lockdown in an effort to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus. On Sunday, Italy extended the lockdown to the entire country, shutting all schools and severely restricting the movements of some 60 million people—the biggest quarantine outside China since the coronavirus crisis erupted in January. As of Wednesday, 631 people had died of the virus in Italy.
Now, the 16-year-old is confined to his three-bedroom family apartment in Milan. Yet while his private school, Famiglia e Scuola, is shut, classes still continue under quarantine, in an ongoing experiment in remote learning.
On Wednesday, Leonardo let TIME watch how the quarantine schooling works, as students logged into Google Hangout to attend their regular morning class in Ancient Greek. For Leonardo, it was a welcome chance to see his friends, from whom he has been isolated for weeks. One hitch: The teachers have bluntly told him that his adored golden retriever, Dag II, is no longer welcome to sit on his lap during lessons.
The classes are a distraction from the more serious concerns about the outbreak. “I worry about my grandmother,” Leonardo says. “She is 101.”
But there are many other daily complications too to life under quarantine — it has taken days to find a clinic still open and capable of attending to Leonardo’s brother Frederico, 12, who broke his hand while skiing last month, during the glorious days before the virus hit Italy.
The family also needed to find an open clinic capable of extracting a ball from Dag II’s stomach — the hound swallowed one during a rare walk in the park.
from Health – TIME https://ift.tt/2TZeIcF
President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday night that travel from Europe to the U.S. will be largely suspended for 30 days starting Friday in an effort to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus. But public health experts say the travel ban — which does not apply to American citizens or permanent legal residents and their families — is unlikely to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 in the U.S.
“This is the most aggressive and comprehensive effort to confront a foreign virus in modern history,” Trump said in his nationwide address just hours after the World Health Organization’s (WHO) announcement that coronavirus is now a pandemic. “I will always put the wellbeing of America first.”
Under the new regulation, all 26 countries in the Schengen area are subject to the same restrictions, despite great variation in the number of cases amongst European countries. The ban also does not apply to the United Kingdom, which has more cases than many European countries, raising questions about how the U.S. government went about deciding what nations would and would not be banned.
But public health experts warn that even with the travel ban, the virus will still spread. And travel bans risk discouraging people from disclosing their previous countries of travel. The WHO says that denying entry to passengers arriving from affected countries are “usually not effective in preventing the importation of cases but may have significant economic and social impact.”
“We’ve known from the start that travel bans are not effective,” Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia told TIME. “I don’t think there is any scientific justification for them and I don’t think it will reduce the disease burden in the U.S.”
While Francois Balloux, a professor of computational systems biology at University College London tells TIME that travel bans can be effective, that’s only when there’s no local person-to-person transmission already in place. The U.S. has at least 1, 323 cases in 38 states, which experts say make the proliferation of the virus inevitable
“The U.S. has more cases than some of the countries they are banning,” Balloux says, noting that the ban is “completely ridiculous.”
While Trump has promised to make health services and testing more readily available, there have been widespread reports of people struggling to get tested. Experts say it is likely that many cases in the U.S. have already gone undetected. “I think it’s likely, though not for certain, that the American estimates are lower than the actual disease burden,” Hunter says. He adds, “the U.S. problem is not anymore about trying to reduce virus importation. It’s about how on earth are you going to manage the spread within your population.”
“I really resent this idea that there is a trade of between managing epidemics and paying economic costs,” Balloux says. “That is a misunderstanding: if you want to save lives, you have to keep the economy afloat.”
The U.S. government’s drastic measures have elicited condemnation by European politicians, who were reportedly not given forewarning of the travel ban.
In a statement, the European Commission, the governing body of the European Union said, “the coronavirus is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and it requires cooperation rather than unilateral action,” adding, “the European Union disapproves of the fact that the U.S. decision to impose a travel ban was taken unilaterally and without consultation.”
Experts say that in the case of a pandemic, which necessitates global cooperation, nationalist approaches to governing can be dangerous to disease prevention and response. “If you antagonize your key partners, you send a signal that there is no global coordination response,” Baloux says.
Rather than a travel ban, experts say the U.S. government should be focussing its energy on providing adequate testing and care for its citizens. Unlike most European countries, the U.S. does not have universal health care or paid sick leaving, increasing the likelihood that people will not get tested and go to work infected, further spreading the disease. “If you have a system where a large portion of the population cannot be tested because of the costs involved, Hunter says, “then you are never going to control this.”
from Health – TIME https://ift.tt/3aRi9cg
“I’ll start eating healthy again on Monday.”
“I’m not really a gym person.”
“I’ll probably gain the weight back anyway.”
I hear statements like these all the time. If any of them sound remotely like something you’ve said recently, there’s a good chance you’re secretly sabotaging yourself. You might not even know that you’re doing it—but what you do know is that nothing in your life is changing. That probably sounds a little harsh but hear me out.
Self-Sabotage Is Part of Human Nature
I’ve worked with hundreds of clients who’ve battled their self-sabotage demons and you can, too. It starts by understanding the science behind why you do it. When your logical, conscious mind has a goal (like swapping bacon and eggs for fruit-on-the-bottom yogurt) is at odds with your subconscious mind (the side of you that believes fruit, cereal, and low-fat yogurt are part of a nutritious breakfast), your subconscious or “inner critic” tries to protect you and keep you safe from potential failure by sabotaging your efforts.
This phenomenon is so common that psychologists conducted a study where college students were instructed to choose between a drug that allegedly interfered with their performance on a test and one that enhanced it. They found that participants were more likely to choose the performance-inhibiting drug, so they could purposefully set themselves up for failure and eliminate the fear of not succeeding.
In light of this research, and all of you who might be in this camp right now, I’m going to show you 10 ways to stop sabotaging yourself so you can start working toward your goals.
Recognize your inner critic
We all have one, me included. But you always have a choice whether or not you listen to the thoughts your inner critic thrashes you with. Your mind’s job is to interpret the world around you, creating stories based on limiting beliefs or stories from your past. And… it’s just trying to keep you safe, so it might say things like, “Who do you think you are?” or “You’ll never be able to stick with this.” Know that you are not your thoughts. Just acknowledge your inner critic, thank it for trying to protect you, and move on.
Forget about perfection
If you always jumped ship when things didn’t go as planned, you’d never get anything done. It’s not going to be perfect. Nothing is. That’s why I believe in progress over perfection. So maybe you ate some of your kids’ Valentine’s Day candy. So what? Just think about all the times you got it right! Focusing on the things you didn’t do won’t get you anywhere, so ditch the perfection mentality and aim for progress instead.
Get clear on your priorities
You’ve got to want it more than you don’t want it. That means resolving any inner conflict that may be going on. You might feel great when you have a whole week’s worth of groceries in your fridge, but you hate taking the time to make a list and meal prep. I hear you. But do you hate having nothing to eat and ordering a pizza (something that works against your goals) more than meal prepping? That’s for you to decide.
Step outside your comfort zone
Even if your habits are less-than-healthy—grabbing a muffin on the way into work, sleeping in instead of journaling, waiting for the elevator versus taking the stairs—they probably feel comfortable to you. Repeating the same behaviors over and over again gives you a false sense of safety and security since you’re used to doing them. And that can lead to unconscious self-sabotage because you want to avoid any uncomfortable feelings or situations that a new behavior might bring. Now is the time to get comfortable with a little discomfort!
Know that you deserve this
Worthiness and self-esteem play a huge role in self-sabotage. You might feel like you don’t deserve to be healthy, fit, or successful. Or you’ve failed before, so why try now? If your imagination is working overtime (and coupling up with that inner critic) you might come up with a million scenarios about why you’re not worth working toward your goals. But trust me, you are. Everyone deserves good health.
Create realistic expectations
Sometimes people try to overcompensate for their feelings of inadequacy by setting extremely high and unrealistic expectations. If you’re one of those people, pick one thing that you want to work on instead of attempting huge, sweeping changes all at once. Major changes to your diet and lifestyle can be hard to maintain, so get started by making small, doable changes that build your self-confidence rather than tear it down.
Set yourself up for success
One of the easiest ways to prevent self-sabotage is to set your environment up for success. Limit the time you scroll social media during the workday by taking Instagram and Facebook off of your phone. Or cut down on the amount of sugar and processed food you eat by removing from the house and shopping for high-quality proteins and fresh veggies instead.
Realize you don’t have to know it all
No one knows everything, so don’t let that keep you from working toward your goals. You may not know the best way to lose fat, how to get out of the “diet mentality”, or where to buy the best grass-fed beef, but there’s so much information out there about anything you could want to know. And if you can’t find it, you can always turn to one of our Primal Health Coaches for help.
Understand that fear is normal
Whether you’re in your first full week of paleo or committed to getting a solid eight hours of sleep, it’s natural to experience a little anxiety. You may fear the unknown or the unfamiliar, what others will say or think, that you may fail, or even that you’ll succeed. But just like your inner critic that you can listen to or ignore, you can choose to move past your fears with an understanding that the unknown is a normal part of the process as you move on to bigger and better things.
Reframe failure
Growing up, we’re taught that failure is something to avoid at all costs for fear of shame, guilt, or ridicule. However, failure is a necessary step for success. Just think about all the famous inventors, authors, and actors who failed several times before successfully getting to where they are now. If you hit the snooze button every day this week, ask what you can learn from it. If you indulged all week on vacation, don’t punish yourself—simply remember how far you’ve come.
10 Steps to Stop Self-Sabotage
Two of the most important questions you can ask yourself are: “Why am I self-sabotaging”, and, “How am I doing it?” Knowing why and how you’re getting in your own way can help you get past the obstacles that hold you back. Self-sabotage might be part of human nature, but you don’t have to let it derail your goals. Here’s how:
The slow global response to climate change shows the cost of inaction in global crises. Health https://ift.tt/2U0iBht
As the novel coronavirus saturates the news, forcing colleges and sports leagues to shut down and infiltrating Hollywood, many Americans are understandably wondering when it will arrive at their doorstep. While the number of known cases in the U.S. appears to be comparatively low as of now, the figures are almost certain to spike very soon, as both testing and exposure increase. While COVID-19 has unquestionably spread further than officially known, it is poised to round the curb and spread widely across the U.S. By the end of April, there will be no dispute that COVID-19 is not a “foreign virus.”
To better understand outbreaks like this, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) consults a network of academics and industry experts who specialize in modeling the spread of contagious diseases. One of those outside groups, the Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems at Northeastern University, provided TIME with exclusive access to 100 of the different coronavirus scenarios it has generated in its efforts to support the CDC.
For the following interactive, TIME picked five of Northeastern’s potential scenarios that most closely align with the growth of COVID-19 cases we’ve already seen in the U.S. These models vary from detection levels of about 40% of those who contract the illness (under the “High” scenario) to 25% (in the “Low” scenario). They also account for the fact that the actual number of infected individuals is and will continue to remain significantly higher than the number of confirmed cases. That’s because not all infected individuals will exhibit symptoms or be tested, even though they remain contagious.
To create this interactive, the Northeastern team provided TIME with potential day-by-day growth in COVID-19 cases across 483 U.S. locations, organized around transportation hubs and dating from the emergence of the virus through April 30. This feature, which TIME produced in-house with the consultation of the researchers to ensure accuracy, will continue to be updated as the model adapts once more is known about the virus’ behavior — for instance, whether it might be highly seasonal, like the flu.
The purpose of this visualization, and of Northeastern’s research more broadly, is not to predict what will happen, but rather forecast what could occur under a variety of conditions that remain unknown or unknowable. But the conclusion the models offer is clear: The degree to which the U.S. government and the healthcare industry can coordinate efforts to test individuals more effectively — a process that has been confusing, slow and riddled with errors — could mean the difference between tens of thousands of cases over the next six weeks, or well over a million.
“What we’re seeing now is really just the tip of the iceberg,” says Alessandro Vespignani, the director of the Northeastern lab, who worked alongside colleagues Matteo Chinazzi and Ana Pastore y Piontti on this research. “That’s the problem of not doing extensive testing. Because testing has been limited here, I would be inclined toward the worst case scenarios.” (The researchers also provided TIME with a catastrophic scenario in which virtually no one is tested, which is not visualized here because attempts to produce images of the outcome repeatedly crashed this reporter’s computer. Suffice it to say the entire map quickly becomes completely orange.)
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The model that produced these scenarios consists of two streams of information. The first is what Vespignani called “the ‘business as usual’ of the world.” This includes a vast amount of data on global populations gathered from each country’s version of the Census Bureau (as well as many other sources), with a focus on population density and mobility, from daily commuting patterns to the volume of international travel.
The second set of parameters fed into the model involve the nature of this coronavirus, which at this point is much less well understood. The challenge with a “novel” coronavirus, after all, is that it’s new. Every communicable disease behaves differently, which poses a problem for gaming out the transmission of one that wasn’t known to exist until very recently.
“For the flu, or ebola, or more regular diseases, we have quite a good understanding of the mechanism of transmission and so forth,” Vespignani said. “For [COVID-19], the problem is we didn’t know anything until two months ago. Now, every day that goes by we add a little piece to the puzzle and we can fill the model with those numbers.”
The most important factors that researchers like Vespignani need to consider include a virus’ “reproduction number” (a value that represents how contagious it is) as well as its incubation time (the period between infection and the onset of symptoms). Given that COVID-19 can produce minor or no symptoms in healthy individuals, the models in this case must also account for the detection rate.
Even if the coronavirus was better understood, the most complex simulations in the world would still produce scenarios with a wide variety of severity. Like all models, whether for election outcomes, sporting events or the path of a hurricane, there is variability that cannot be predicted or packaged into a variable — a margin of uncertainty known as “stochastic” events that exhibit random behavior.
“Let’s imagine you are sick with COVID, and you go into a coffee place. You might sneeze there or sneeze two minutes later when you get into the car and you are alone,” Vespignani said. “Unfortunately, nobody will ever be able to model for that. For this reason, all models are stochastic models.”
It is natural to wonder, then, why so much effort goes into computing models that produce such a range of outcomes. Again, the power of the discipline is not in correctly predicting what will occur, but demonstrating how the possible scenarios change based on different inputs. As the maps provided here demonstrate, the effective use of widespread testing, even of asymptomatic individuals, will be critical in mitigating the potentially catastrophic impact. Every variable is a clue, and every adjustment to its value — picture a giant machine with hundreds of levers in different positions — offers another hint as to what can contain a pandemic.
Please send any tips, leads, and stories tovirus@time.com.
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Analysis of Facebook posts from as early as 2.5 months before those patients' emergency visits revealed that most had changes in their language before seeking emergency care.
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The annual decline was slightly larger among men (1.8%) than women (1.4%), according to the Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer.
“I’ll start eating healthy again on Monday.”
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